EXP124 — Fundamental Divergence watchlist, not a trader

98 names · 2 armed · 2 triggered · built 2026-07-27 22:33 UTC · z = cross-sectional divergence (higher = more stretched)

Stage matrix — actionable state × edge remaining

TRIGGERED · EARLY — foreshadow, edge intact

AVGO 1.0

TRIGGERED · MID — repricing underway

SMCI 1.6

TRIGGERED · LATE — edge largely spent

— none —

ARMED — stretched, no confirmation yet (watch)

— none —

Ranked watchlist — universe-relative vs sector-relative, with z trend

#	Ticker	Sector	Univ z	Sector z	Stage	dd63	Price
1	SMCI	Technology	1.58	0.88	TRIGGERED · MID	40.6%	29.81
2	AVGO	Technology	1.02	1.01	TRIGGERED · EARLY	20.3%	383.22
3	APP	Communication Services	0.86	0.33	DORMANT	32.7%	412.73
4	CEG	Utilities	0.85	-0.50	DORMANT	16.2%	270.00
5	ARM	Technology	0.79	0.51	DORMANT	39.4%	266.33
6	PANW	Technology	0.73	0.47	DORMANT	11.5%	317.32
7	DDOG	Technology	0.65	0.40	DORMANT	9.2%	251.86
8	MU	Technology	0.63	0.71	DORMANT	25.8%	900.20
9	GOOG	Communication Services	0.47	0.61	DORMANT	18.1%	326.57
10	GM	Consumer Cyclical	0.42	0.26	DORMANT	0.0%	87.04
11	CAT	Industrials	0.40	0.90	DORMANT	17.8%	873.28
12	CSCO	Technology	0.36	0.13	DORMANT	11.5%	114.57
13	WMT	Consumer Defensive	0.34	0.80	DORMANT	16.7%	111.74
14	PLTR	Technology	0.33	0.11	DORMANT	18.1%	131.53
15	ORCL	Technology	0.32	0.22	DORMANT	51.5%	119.90
16	AAPL	Technology	0.31	0.11	DORMANT	0.0%	336.91
17	AMAT	Technology	0.31	0.10	DORMANT	28.5%	516.89
18	ENPH	Technology	0.29	0.06	DORMANT	47.4%	38.01
19	GOOGL	Communication Services	0.27	0.50	DORMANT	18.8%	326.56
20	ANET	Technology	0.25	-0.02	DORMANT	8.7%	170.76
21	ABNB	Consumer Cyclical	0.23	0.95	DORMANT	1.4%	146.86
22	TTD	Communication Services	0.23	0.21	DORMANT	27.3%	17.88
23	TXN	Technology	0.22	0.04	DORMANT	15.9%	279.41
24	DELL	Technology	0.21	0.01	DORMANT	8.2%	426.91
25	JPM	Financial Services	0.20	0.23	DORMANT	0.0%	356.20
26	CVX	Energy	0.19	0.05	DORMANT	3.7%	190.00
27	VZ	Communication Services	0.19	-0.03	DORMANT	0.7%	47.32
28	LRCX	Technology	0.15	-0.06	DORMANT	32.7%	291.61
29	INTC	Technology	0.15	-0.07	DORMANT	35.0%	91.67
30	AMD	Technology	0.14	0.04	DORMANT	14.8%	494.95
31	PWR	Industrials	0.14	0.52	DORMANT	21.0%	620.28
32	HPE	Technology	0.13	-0.04	DORMANT	13.9%	48.19
33	OXY	Energy	0.12	0.91	DORMANT	9.2%	54.93
34	ON	Technology	0.11	-0.10	DORMANT	33.5%	89.04
35	MRK	Healthcare	0.10	0.51	DORMANT	0.0%	130.76
36	APH	Technology	0.10	-0.10	DORMANT	15.3%	149.28
37	VST	Utilities	0.09	0.40	DORMANT	7.0%	157.08
38	FTNT	Technology	0.08	-0.11	DORMANT	8.7%	152.38
39	GEV	Industrials	0.08	-1.19	DORMANT	15.2%	996.57
40	META	Communication Services	0.06	0.41	DORMANT	12.8%	593.87
41	GS	Financial Services	0.05	1.12	DORMANT	9.0%	1048.23
42	QCOM	Technology	0.03	-0.20	DORMANT	32.0%	170.04
43	FCX	Basic Materials	0.02	0.72	DORMANT	12.3%	62.72
44	VRT	Industrials	0.00	0.52	DORMANT	23.5%	287.60
45	NCLH	Consumer Cyclical	0.00	0.59	DORMANT	8.6%	20.03
46	NVDA	Technology	-0.03	-0.25	DORMANT	16.5%	196.51
47	IBM	Technology	-0.03	-0.21	DORMANT	34.3%	216.28
48	UAL	Industrials	-0.04	-0.00	DORMANT	11.4%	120.57
49	DAL	Industrials	-0.05	0.30	DORMANT	7.2%	86.67
50	DASH	Consumer Cyclical	-0.08	1.06	DORMANT	5.8%	184.37
51	HOOD	Financial Services	-0.08	-0.17	DORMANT	18.6%	95.65
52	COST	Consumer Defensive	-0.11	0.24	DORMANT	—	—
53	LLY	Healthcare	-0.12	0.24	DORMANT	3.1%	1197.53
54	TGT	Consumer Defensive	-0.12	0.01	DORMANT	0.6%	140.34
55	HPQ	Technology	-0.13	-0.29	DORMANT	8.4%	26.55
56	COIN	Financial Services	-0.13	-0.27	DORMANT	22.7%	167.49
57	PFE	Healthcare	-0.13	0.34	DORMANT	—	—
58	WBD	Communication Services	-0.14	-0.45	DORMANT	8.0%	25.28
59	CRWD	Technology	-0.15	-0.19	DORMANT	14.5%	180.11
60	LYB	Basic Materials	-0.15	0.05	DORMANT	23.8%	58.62
61	SLB	Energy	-0.16	0.05	DORMANT	11.2%	51.53
62	ADBE	Technology	-0.17	-0.34	DORMANT	13.2%	237.75
63	CRM	Technology	-0.18	-0.34	DORMANT	17.0%	173.60
64	AMZN	Consumer Cyclical	-0.18	0.16	DORMANT	15.9%	231.39
65	LUV	Industrials	-0.19	-0.54	DORMANT	12.9%	45.38
66	DVN	Energy	-0.20	-0.47	DORMANT	15.4%	43.16
67	XYZ	Technology	-0.21	-0.33	DORMANT	0.7%	81.24
68	RCL	Consumer Cyclical	-0.21	0.31	DORMANT	5.5%	305.04
69	SBUX	Consumer Cyclical	-0.23	-0.37	DORMANT	4.4%	103.65
70	V	Financial Services	-0.24	0.05	DORMANT	0.7%	362.53
71	TSLA	Consumer Cyclical	-0.25	-0.18	DORMANT	30.6%	309.22
72	EQT	Energy	-0.27	-0.42	DORMANT	13.2%	52.00
73	NFLX	Communication Services	-0.27	-0.35	DORMANT	24.8%	70.40
74	NEM	Basic Materials	-0.28	-0.64	DORMANT	22.4%	93.47
75	MOS	Basic Materials	-0.30	0.46	DORMANT	7.1%	22.34
76	ALB	Basic Materials	-0.30	-0.10	DORMANT	44.5%	116.18
77	UPS	Industrials	-0.31	-0.75	DORMANT	4.1%	112.95
78	EL	Consumer Defensive	-0.32	-0.66	DORMANT	8.4%	83.20
79	DOW	Basic Materials	-0.33	-0.50	DORMANT	28.8%	28.75
80	MSFT	Technology	-0.34	-0.48	DORMANT	15.5%	389.10
81	PYPL	Financial Services	-0.35	-0.02	DORMANT	1.3%	56.07
82	UNH	Healthcare	-0.36	0.11	DORMANT	4.3%	417.64
83	PG	Consumer Defensive	-0.36	-0.18	DORMANT	—	—
84	UBER	Technology	-0.37	-0.54	DORMANT	13.9%	68.18
85	MRNA	Healthcare	-0.37	-0.28	DORMANT	32.0%	55.63
86	DIS	Communication Services	-0.39	-0.64	DORMANT	10.4%	96.65
87	BKNG	Consumer Cyclical	-0.41	-0.47	DORMANT	0.0%	186.79
88	CCL	Consumer Cyclical	-0.44	-0.46	DORMANT	12.2%	27.12
89	CTSH	Technology	-0.47	-0.60	DORMANT	17.7%	47.05
90	FISV	—	-0.47	0.00	DORMANT	16.7%	52.31
91	NKE	Consumer Cyclical	-0.48	-0.01	DORMANT	10.2%	42.14
92	BSX	Healthcare	-0.48	-0.22	DORMANT	26.7%	45.51
93	CMG	Consumer Cyclical	-0.50	-0.49	DORMANT	9.4%	33.20
94	DECK	Consumer Cyclical	-0.50	-0.64	DORMANT	14.5%	97.73
95	CNC	Healthcare	-0.53	-0.75	DORMANT	6.8%	64.08
96	LULU	Consumer Cyclical	-0.55	-0.68	DORMANT	19.8%	117.83
97	CMCSA	Communication Services	-0.56	-0.81	DORMANT	16.4%	22.80
98	GLW	Technology	-2.17	-1.42	DORMANT	43.9%	143.36

Per-metric decomposition — which failure mode drives each name (top 25)

z≥2 z≥1 ~0 z≤−1 hot = stretched / concerning

Ticker	Agg z	RPO−Rev	Rev−FCF	Capex−OCF	Val %ile	SBC %	Cust conc
SMCI	1.58	0.3	0.9	9.1	-1.5	-0.5	1.2
AVGO	1.02	1.5	0.2	-0.1	0.7	1.5	2.2
APP	0.86	—	-0.2	3.3	0.4	-0.0	—
CEG	0.85	3.9	-0.0	-0.8	0.3	—	—
ARM	0.79	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	1.2	3.4	0.7
PANW	0.73	-0.1	0.1	0.0	1.3	2.3	—
DDOG	0.65	-0.1	0.3	0.0	-0.3	3.4	—
MU	0.63	1.7	1.0	-0.4	1.4	-0.5	—
GOOG	0.47	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.6	0.5	—
GM	0.42	—	0.0	-0.1	1.3	—	—
CAT	0.40	0.1	0.1	-0.1	1.4	—	—
CSCO	0.36	-0.2	0.1	-0.0	1.4	0.5	—
WMT	0.34	—	0.1	-0.1	1.0	—	—
PLTR	0.33	0.0	0.3	-0.1	0.5	2.0	-0.7
ORCL	0.32	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.6	-0.7
AAPL	0.31	—	0.1	-0.2	1.5	-0.2	—
AMAT	0.31	—	0.1	0.0	1.4	-0.3	—
ENPH	0.29	-0.2	0.2	0.0	-0.8	2.1	—
GOOGL	0.27	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.6	0.5	-0.7
ANET	0.25	-0.3	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.2	—
ABNB	0.23	—	0.1	-0.0	-1.0	1.8	—
TTD	0.23	—	0.1	-0.0	-1.6	2.4	—
TXN	0.22	—	0.0	-0.2	1.4	-0.3	—
DELL	0.21	-0.0	0.4	-0.3	1.5	-0.7	0.4
JPM	0.20	—	—	—	1.1	-0.7	—