EXP113 — AI Bubble SHORT

DC Cancellation Signal WEAK4 confirmed events · avg bear 5.5

Sabey withdrew its proposal to build a data center in Butte, Montana, with the site being sold to REC Silicon.
Ohio Governor DeWine paused a data center tax break program due to a significant error in forecasting energy demand, potentially affecting future AI datacenter projects.
Denmark halts new large-load grid agreements, effectively pausing AI datacenter buildout due to grid capacity constraints.

Historical Comparison — Dot-com & 2008 vs AI Now

Drawdown History

Wave Status

26% to triggeravg DD -7.9% / trigger -30%

30d drawdown · mom5d

Ticker	Name	DD 30d	Mom 5d	Net Bear	Top Headline
NRG $135.06	NRG Energy — DC power	-15.7%	-1.4%	-2	Investors Heavily Search NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG): Here is What You Need to Know
CEG $287.36	Constellation — nuclear	-11.0%	+0.5%	-13	AI Leader GE Vernova: Data-Center Customers 'Are Struggling To Get Projects Acro
VST $158.48	Vistra — power utility	-4.9%	+6.3%	-6	Possible Bearish Signals With Vistra Insiders Disposing Stock
ORCL $222.64	Oracle — cloud AI	0.0%	+17.3%	-74	Up to 82% of AI Engineering Spend Lost to Bugs, Rewrites, and Delays: Study Find

70% to triggeravg DD -9.1% / trigger -13%

30d drawdown · mom5d

Ticker	Name	DD 30d	Mom 5d	Net Bear	Top Headline
CRWV $106.28	CoreWeave — GPU cloud	-23.0%	-1.2%	-64	Chasing a $400 Billion Prize: Google's New AI Cloud Company Is a Threat to Nvidi
VRT $312.90	Vertiv — DC cooling	-16.8%	-3.2%	-70	Dow Jones Futures Fall, Snowflake Surges On Earnings; Fed Inflation Data Due
ANET $157.66	Arista — DC networking	-10.9%	+6.1%	-37	Cisco Soars 32% in a Month, Arista Falls 10%, Broadcom Drifts: The AI Networking
NVDA $216.57	Nvidia — GPUs	-8.1%	-1.3%	-45	AST SpaceMobile Plunges 17%, Planet Labs Drops 8% on Blue Origin Explosion, Whil
META $624.75	Meta — $60B capex	-7.9%	+2.9%	-24	CoreWeave Lost $740 Million in 90 Days. Then Meta Handed It $21 Billion. Welcome
AMD $508.81	AMD — GPU competitor	-1.8%	+13.2%	-43	Nvidia Stock Is Now a Chip Laggard
SMCI $45.67	Super Micro (display)	0.0%	+36.5%	-79	Super Micro Works With Taiwan in Smuggling Probe
NBIS $223.92	Nebius — AI cloud	-1.1%	+1.8%	-82	AI Has Caused a Software Winter for Markets. Snowflake’s Success Won’t End It.

15% to triggeravg DD -2.2% / trigger -15%

30d drawdown · mom5d

Ticker	Name	DD 30d	Mom 5d	Net Bear	Top Headline
INTC $118.40	Intel — foundry+Gaudi	-8.5%	-0.1%	-58	Why AST SpaceMobile Stock Just Crashed
DLR $191.18	Digital Realty — DC REIT	-4.9%	-1.6%	-12	Digital Realty Publishes 2025 Impact Report, Highlighting Sustainability Progres
EQIX $1066.81	Equinix — colocation	-4.3%	-1.1%	-31	The difference between on-prem AI vs. data centers
AVGO $439.48	Broadcom — custom AI chips	-0.1%	+6.0%	-52	Nvidia and Micron Stocks Are Almost Exclusively Driving S&P Earnings Strength. T
ASML $1613.33	ASML — only EUV maker	-1.2%	+1.3%	-53	Mutual funds still hate battered software stocks: By the numbers
MRVL $204.03	Marvell — custom silicon	-2.0%	+7.0%	-72	Jim Cramer Won’t Touch POET. The Reddit Crowd Thinks He’s Wrong. Somebody’s Abou
DELL $407.92	Dell — AI servers	0.0%	+61.4%	-108	Gap Lowers Sales Outlook; Dell Soars on AI Demand \| Stock Movers
HPE $43.46	HPE — enterprise AI	0.0%	+27.9%	-51	1 Cash-Producing Stock Worth Investigating and 2 We Find Risky
ARM $354.29	ARM Holdings	0.0%	+18.8%	-55	Arm Holdings plc (ARM) to Face US Antitrust Probe over Chip Tech, Bloomberg News
TSM $420.58	TSMC — foundry canary	-1.0%	+3.3%	-65	Samsung, SK Rally Sparks Forced Selling as Funds Hit Limits

30d drawdown · mom5d

Ticker	Name	DD 30d	Mom 5d	Net Bear	Top Headline
GEV $962.71	GE Vernova — grid	-16.3%	-7.8%	-64	GE Vernova Turbine Milestone Raises Questions On Cash Flows And Dividends
PWR $717.10	Quanta — builds DCs	-8.7%	+0.0%	-78	Can EMCOR's Mechanical Construction Strength Offset Margin Pressure?
IREN $62.12	IREN — GPU cloud	-8.4%	+7.0%	-107	Dow Jones Futures Fall, Snowflake Surges On Earnings; Fed Inflation Data Due
IRM $127.11	Iron Mountain	-3.8%	-0.2%	-5	Are Business Services Stocks Lagging Clean Harbors (CLH) This Year?
GOOGL $382.57	Google — Gemini	-5.0%	-1.3%	-10	Chasing a $400 Billion Prize: Google's New AI Cloud Company Is a Threat to Nvidi
MSFT $442.96	Microsoft — OpenAI	-0.5%	+5.7%	-55	AI spending boom now bigger than the dotcom bubble but cracks are beginning to s
AMZN $270.96	Amazon — AWS	-1.5%	+0.9%	-40	AST SpaceMobile Plunges 17%, Planet Labs Drops 8% on Blue Origin Explosion, Whil
CORZ $26.92	Core Scientific	-3.0%	+8.5%	-8	Core Scientific Targets AI Data Center Deals as Build Costs Climb
APLD $46.80	Applied Digital — HPC	-5.7%	-2.5%	-28	3 Reasons APLD is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

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