EXP113 — AI Bubble SHORT

Domino tracker: Wave 1 → Wave 2 → Wave 3

Strategy Briefings

Short version (~5 min)
Full version (~15 min)

News & Audio

Signal Price Tracker — forward returns after each news event
Date Ticker Score Headline Price +7d +14d +30d
2026-07-27MSFT85 Earnings Reports to Watch as Big Tech’s AI Spending Faces a Test$381.58
2026-07-27MSFT8Google’s $205B AI Data Center Bet Rattles Wall Street$381.58
2026-07-27AMZN85 Earnings Reports to Watch as Big Tech’s AI Spending Faces a Test$233.66
2026-07-27AMZN8Google’s $205B AI Data Center Bet Rattles Wall Street$233.66
2026-07-27GOOGL8Google’s $205B AI Data Center Bet Rattles Wall Street$317.69
2026-07-27DELL6Eli Lilly, Dell Among Stocks To Watch As Market Leadership Shifts$439.34
2026-07-23GOOGL8If companies pull back on AI spending, it sends a ‘signal’ to the mark…$342.09
2026-07-23INTC6Data Center Costs Are Racking Up. What That Means for Oracle Stock Her…$102.62
2026-07-23INTC6How 5 Giant Stocks Are Causing a Potentially Nuclear Debt Headache for…$102.62
2026-07-23GOOGL6Alphabet cloud-fuelled earnings beat fails to address fundamental long…$342.09
2026-07-23GOOGL6How 5 Giant Stocks Are Causing a Potentially Nuclear Debt Headache for…$342.09
2026-07-23GOOGL6The AI productivity paradox: Why enterprise deployments stall and how …$342.09
2026-07-23GOOGL6Dow Jones Futures: Google, Tesla Fall On Earnings, Capital Spending$342.09
2026-07-23AMZN6How 5 Giant Stocks Are Causing a Potentially Nuclear Debt Headache for…$244.85
2026-07-23INTC6Why Gartner Stock Swooned in the First Half of 2026$102.62
2026-07-23TSLA6Dow Jones Futures: Google, Tesla Fall On Earnings, Capital Spending$374.01
2026-07-23ORCL6Data Center Costs Are Racking Up. What That Means for Oracle Stock Her…$125.84
2026-07-23ORCL6How 5 Giant Stocks Are Causing a Potentially Nuclear Debt Headache for…$125.84
2026-07-23MSFT6Data Center Costs Are Racking Up. What That Means for Oracle Stock Her…$390.34
2026-07-23MSFT6How 5 Giant Stocks Are Causing a Potentially Nuclear Debt Headache for…$390.34
2026-07-23META6How 5 Giant Stocks Are Causing a Potentially Nuclear Debt Headache for…$627.17
2026-07-21GOOGL8Why enterprise AI programs stall before scaling, and what the roadmap …$351.99
2026-07-21MSFT8Oracle could face $7bn collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre$402.29
2026-07-21ORCL8Oracle could face $7bn collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre$121.38
2026-07-21NVDA8Oracle could face $7bn collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre$203.28
2026-07-21PLTR6Prediction: This Could Be Palantir's Stock Price By the End of 2027$134.85
2026-07-21ORCL6PSKY, ORCL, TLRY Stocks Hit 52-Week Lows Today: What's Driving The Sel…$121.38
2026-07-21NVDA6Why Nvidia Stock is Flat Since November Despite Tripling Its Net Incom…$203.28
2026-07-21INTC6After A Steep Run And A Sharp Drop, Is Marvell Technology Stock A Bet …$97.06
2026-07-21INTC6Prediction: This Could Be Palantir's Stock Price By the End of 2027$97.06
2026-07-19VRT8Analysis: Among AI crowd, some investors position for slower hyperscal…$289.56
2026-07-19TSLA8What Do SpaceX, AMD, and Palantir Have in Common?$380.84
2026-07-19PLTR8What Do SpaceX, AMD, and Palantir Have in Common?$132.38
2026-07-19NVDA8What Do SpaceX, AMD, and Palantir Have in Common?$202.81
2026-07-19MSFT8Multiple Compression Is a Real Threat to Microsoft Stock, But Its Core…$393.82
2026-07-19INTC8Multiple Compression Is a Real Threat to Microsoft Stock, But Its Core…$95.04
2026-07-19GOOGL8Investors pivot as AI chip rally falters on spending slowdown fears - …$346.77
2026-07-19GOOGL8Analysis: Among AI crowd, some investors position for slower hyperscal…$346.77
2026-07-19AMD8What Do SpaceX, AMD, and Palantir Have in Common?$495.76
2026-07-19GOOGL6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$346.77
2026-07-19MSFT6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$393.82
2026-07-19MSFT6The AI Capex Question Every QQQ Holder Should Be Asking Right Now$393.82
2026-07-19MSFT6The S&P 500 Is Becoming a Tech Index in Disguise — But That May Not Be…$393.82
2026-07-19META6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$646.01
2026-07-19META6The AI Capex Question Every QQQ Holder Should Be Asking Right Now$646.01
2026-07-19INTC6Did AI Just Cannibalize Microsoft’s Greatest Narrative?$95.04
2026-07-19GOOGL6The AI Capex Question Every QQQ Holder Should Be Asking Right Now$346.77
2026-07-19INTC6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$95.04
2026-07-19GOOGL6The S&P 500 Is Becoming a Tech Index in Disguise — But That May Not Be…$346.77
2026-07-19ORCL6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$126.41
2026-07-19AMZN6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$247.23
2026-07-19NVDA6Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Res…$202.81
2026-07-19NVDA6The AI Capex Question Every QQQ Holder Should Be Asking Right Now$202.81
2026-07-19NVDA6The S&P 500 Is Becoming a Tech Index in Disguise — But That May Not Be…$202.81
2026-07-19MSFT6Did AI Just Cannibalize Microsoft’s Greatest Narrative?$393.82
2026-07-17INTC8Sandisk, Micron, TSMC, Abbott, AST SpaceMobile, and More Stocks That E…$96.98
2026-07-17ORCL8Why Did IBM, ORCL, SMR Stocks Drop To 52-Week Lows Today?$124.21
2026-07-17TSM8Lattice Semiconductor, AMD, and Qualcomm Shares Are Falling, What You …$409.74
2026-07-17TSM8Sandisk, Micron, TSMC, Abbott, AST SpaceMobile, and More Stocks That E…$409.74
2026-07-17INTC8Lattice Semiconductor, AMD, and Qualcomm Shares Are Falling, What You …$96.98
● prices as of 04:05 PM ET
DC Cancellation Signal  WEAK31 confirmed events · avg bear 5.7
Top Bear Signals (W2/W3 trigger tickers)
ASMLnet bear +51China’s chip breakthrough triggers global tech rout
INTCnet bear +19AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
MRVLnet bear +17AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
AMDnet bear +15AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
NVDAnet bear +9AI Chip Stocks Tumble as Nvidia, AMD Lead Market Selloff Over Spending Fears

Historical Comparison — Dot-com & 2008 vs AI Now

X = days from ATH (0 = peak). Current AI tickers peaked Apr–May 2026. Dot-com series end at 3 years post-peak; 2008 at ~2 years.

Drawdown History

Wave Status

Wave 1 — Infra Canaries

53% to triggeravg DD -16.0% / trigger -30%
30d drawdown · mom5d
ORCL-31.5%-5.6%NRG-14.6%-2.3%VST-12.0%-8.4%CEG-5.7%-0.9%avg -16.0%
Ticker Name DD 30dMom 5dNet Bear Top Headline
ORCL $119.94Oracle — cloud AI-31.5%-5.6%+26Warner Bros. Deal Collapse Would Cost the Ellisons $9.8 Billion
NRG $127.57NRG Energy — DC power-14.6%-2.3%-14Clearway Energy (CWEN) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know
VST $148.67Vistra — power utility-12.0%-8.4%-48Ameren to Release Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
CEG $259.82Constellation — nuclear-5.7%-0.9%-16Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Importa

Wave 2 — Main Trade

✅ TRIGGEREDavg DD -15.2% / trigger -13%
30d drawdown · mom5d
CRWV-39.5%-15.4%NBIS-40.2%-21.8%VRT-24.7%-11.5%SMCI-19.8%+11.6%AMD-21.7%-16.5%META-12.9%-7.8%ANET-9.2%-2.8%NVDA-7.3%-5.0%avg -15.2%
Ticker Name DD 30dMom 5dNet Bear Top Headline
CRWV $67.30CoreWeave — GPU cloud-39.5%-15.4%-39Nvidia’s $750 Billion Deals Revive Fear of AI Circular Financing
NBIS $169.69Nebius — AI cloud-40.2%-21.8%-44Nvidia’s $750 Billion Deals Revive Fear of AI Circular Financing
VRT $269.46Vertiv — DC cooling-24.7%-11.5%-73Autodesk initiated, Norwegian Cruise downgrade: Wall Street's top analyst calls
SMCI $28.45Super Micro (display)-19.8%+11.6%+10Market Chatter: Nvidia Employee Detained in Taiwan AI Chip-Smuggling Probe
AMD $454.62AMD — GPU competitor-21.7%-16.5%+15AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
META $593.41Meta — $60B capex-12.9%-7.8%-18Big Tech Credit Risk Flashes Urgent Warning Over AI Spending
ANET $169.71Arista — DC networking-9.2%-2.8%-62Arista Networks Stock: Is Its High Price an Illusion?
NVDA $197.01Nvidia — GPUs-7.3%-5.0%+9AI Chip Stocks Tumble as Nvidia, AMD Lead Market Selloff Over Spending Fears

Wave 3 — Upstream

✅ TRIGGEREDavg DD -19.8% / trigger -15%
30d drawdown · mom5d
MRVL-43.3%-16.1%INTC-38.8%-18.2%ARM-40.0%-15.5%ASML-20.4%-12.1%TSM-17.9%-7.6%DELL-14.3%-3.0%EQIX-7.3%+1.7%AVGO-5.0%-1.4%HPE-8.0%-2.4%DLR-3.0%+7.7%avg -19.8%
Ticker Name DD 30dMom 5dNet Bear Top Headline
MRVL $174.47Marvell — custom silicon-43.3%-16.1%+17AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
INTC $86.30Intel — foundry+Gaudi-38.8%-18.2%+19AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
ARM $244.74ARM Holdings-40.0%-15.5%-54AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
ASML $1582.95ASML — only EUV maker-20.4%-12.1%+51China’s chip breakthrough triggers global tech rout
TSM $392.30TSMC — foundry canary-17.9%-7.6%-8AI Memory Boom Goes Bust. Micron, SK Hynix, Sandisk Plunge 30% — and Are Still F
DELL $392.09Dell — AI servers-14.3%-3.0%-5Nasdaq-100 slides into correction as global chip and memory stocks sell off
EQIX $1034.86Equinix — colocation-7.3%+1.7%-3Malaysia's resource anxiety tests Asia's fastest data centre build-out
AVGO $380.91Broadcom — custom AI chips-5.0%-1.4%-46AMD Sinks 8%, Marvell Sinks 7%, Intel Fall 6% as AI Chip Trade Narrows to NVIDIA
HPE $45.60HPE — enterprise AI-8.0%-2.4%-29Arista Networks Stock: Is Its High Price an Illusion?
DLR $193.18Digital Realty — DC REIT-3.0%+7.7%-70Stocks Struggle as Iran, Inflation Worries Persist: Stock Market Today

Watch

30d drawdown · mom5d
APLD-41.2%-11.4%IREN-40.3%-17.8%CORZ-28.9%-13.6%PWR-20.5%-7.0%GEV-19.7%-12.6%GOOGL-10.0%-3.9%AMZN-9.5%-6.7%IRM-5.5%+1.2%MSFT-2.2%-1.1%avg 0.0%
Ticker Name DD 30dMom 5dNet Bear Top Headline
APLD $26.62Applied Digital — HPC-41.2%-11.4%-78KBW says miner selloff erased pipeline value despite AI/HPC leasing rebound
IREN $33.93IREN — GPU cloud-40.3%-17.8%-24Nvidia’s $750 Billion Deals Revive Fear of AI Circular Financing
CORZ $20.75Core Scientific-28.9%-13.6%-33Core Scientific Stock Drops. Big Earnings Miss Overshadows AMD Deal.
PWR $588.11Quanta — builds DCs-20.5%-7.0%-141 Industrials Stock with Exciting Potential and 2 We Find Risky
GEV $943.28GE Vernova — grid-19.7%-12.6%-68Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Mixed Pre-Bell Tuesday Amid Renewed Pressu
GOOGL $333.71Google — Gemini-10.0%-3.9%-42Big Tech Credit Risk Flashes Urgent Warning Over AI Spending
AMZN $230.86Amazon — AWS-9.5%-6.7%-20Here's Why UPS Stock Crashed Today
IRM $125.72Iron Mountain-5.5%+1.2%+2Equinix Stock Has A Message For Management
MSFT $393.35Microsoft — OpenAI-2.2%-1.1%-41Big Tech Credit Risk Flashes Urgent Warning Over AI Spending