Hyperscalers are committing trillions to AI infrastructure. The ROI hasn't materialised — and the supply side just confirmed it. Broadcom missed AI revenue forecasts on June 6, 2026 — the first infrastructure earnings miss of this cycle. The correction has started. We're positioning into it.
This isn't a bet against AI. It's a bet that the infrastructure buildout is ahead of reality — and that the gap will close painfully for whoever bought at the top.
Meta, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are collectively spending $300B+ per year on AI infrastructure. NVIDIA's data centre revenue grew 93% YoY in early 2025 — but is decelerating to 77%. The demand curve is bending. The capex curve isn't — yet.
Hyperscalers score 6–7/10 on AI ROI language — optimistic but hedging. Their customers are capping spend (Uber burned a year's AI budget in 4 months). On June 6, 2026 Broadcom — the AI backend supplier — missed its AI revenue forecast. The demand-side slowdown has now propagated to the infrastructure layer. This is the Cisco parallel in real time.
SpaceX (SPCX) IPO'd at a $1.75T valuation. The lock-up is staggered — the first tranche of insider selling begins in August 2026, with tranches every 15 days through full unlock on December 9, 2026. $200B+ in stock becomes eligible for sale over that window. This is the kind of supply shock that starts avalanches in overvalued sectors.
Every infrastructure overbuild ends the same way — the leader collapses, not because the technology fails, but because the valuation was pricing in a future that arrives much later than expected.
Broadcom Q2 2026: first AI infrastructure earnings miss vs forecasts. $300B wiped in minutes. Demand-side signals (Uber cost caps, Microsoft building in-house models) have propagated to the supply side. This is the Cisco moment — June 2000 was Cisco's first miss. The 86% decline followed over the next 30 months. Thesis score +15pt in one week.
Both charts show % drawdown from the all-time peak. Day 0 = the top.
We track 162 real-time signals across news, earnings calls, datacenter announcements and SEC filings. Here's what's moving right now.
We buy put options expiring January 2028 — giving us 18 months past the December 2026 lock-up catalyst. The maximum we can lose is the premium paid. The potential upside is 5–10× if NVIDIA corrects like Cisco did.
Unlike shorting stock, we can never lose more than the premium paid. No margin calls.
January 2028 expiry gives the thesis time to play out past the December 2026 catalyst.
If NVIDIA follows a similar path from $205 to ~$80, a $140 put returns ~5× on premium.
We're currently in the pre-entry monitoring phase — tracking signals daily, identifying the optimal entry window (low IV + confirming data). The December 2026 lock-up is 18 months away. The longer we wait, the more expensive the options become.