EXP113B — Burry Plan

EXP113B — The Burry Plan

$15k total · $2k options · Jan 2028 expiry · research phase

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Thesis Strength

72% — Advanced — review exits

Price (core) 45%

Datacenter cancellations 100% (42/60d)

= 50/50 blend

Updated: 2026-07-24 · score driven by core trade names only

CORE — drives the score

Ticker	Price	ATH	DD from ATH	Thesis	Score
VRT	$290.36	$376.23	-22.8%	████████░░	8/10
NVDA	$206.84	$235.74	-12.3%	████░░░░░░	4/10
AMD	$521.95	$580.91	-10.2%	████░░░░░░	4/10
ANET	$173.99	$187.00	-7.0%	██░░░░░░░░	2/10

Breadth / cascade context (info-only — not in the score)

Ticker	Price	ATH	DD from ATH	Thesis	Score
SPCX	$115.07	$201.80	-43.0%	██████████	10/10
CRWV	$71.88	$183.58	-60.9%	██████████	10/10
CEG	$274.35	$403.95	-32.1%	██████████	10/10
NBIS	$187.77	$286.69	-34.5%	██████████	10/10
VST	$163.38	$217.92	-25.0%	████████░░	8/10
MU	$920.95	$1213.56	-24.1%	████████░░	8/10

MU (HBM), VST/CEG (power-for-AI), CRWV/NBIS (neoclouds), SPCX — watched for early dislocation, excluded from the aggregate.

Core price-component history

Thesis Velocity

STABLE

Signals/week

17↓23%

vs 22 prior week

Thesis score

45%↑10pt

vs 35% (6 weeks ago)

Candidate avg score

57.7↓0.9

PRIME+WATCH avg /100

Weekly signal count (red = majority strong ≥8/10)

DC Capacity Pipeline

rolling 18 months · auto-extracted from signals

Total announced

206.0 GW

Cancelled / delayed

12.7 GW

Net committed

193.3 GW

Cancellation rate

6.2%+6.2% vs 90d ago

Pipeline funnel

■ 6% cancelled/delayed■ 94% net committed

Recent events

2026-07-27

announcedOpenAI10.0 GWOhio

Nvidia considers $250bn backstop for OpenAI's planned 10GW Ohio data center - report

2026-07-22

announcedImperial Valley Computer Manufacturing (IVCM)0.3 GWImperial County, California, USA

Lawsuit Tests Water Strategy Behind California’s Lithium Valley

2026-07-20

on_holdUnspecified0.1 GWLong Island

Local and state moratoria puts $1bn Long Island data center project in limbo

2026-07-17

cancelledProject Tango0.6 GWPalm Beach County, Florida

Palm Beach Denial Challenges Wall Street's AI Power Bet

2026-07-16

on_holdNew York State0.1 GWNew York, USA

At last, a good reason to buy an AI PC: Reining in runaway token bills

2026-07-16

on_holdNew York0.1 GWNew York

Musk promises purge after Grok Build caught sending repos to the cloud

2026-07-13

cancelledUnknown (via Stewart PLLC and Cooley LLP)3.9 GWPrince William County, Virginia, USA

County officials deny application for 2,000-acre data center campus in Virginia

2026-07-09

cancelledSwervo Development Corp.0.0 GWElk River, Minnesota, USA

Officials in Elk River, Minnesota, deny data center application, consider moratorium

2026-07-06

cancelledQTS3.0 GWPrince William County, Virginia

What QTS’ Canceled $30B Project Reveals About AI Data Center Development

2026-07-03

confirmedAmazon1.2 GWGlobal

Amazon's carbon emissions grow by 16 percent in 2025, on the back of record data center capacity additions

Vol Regime — Entry-Window Screen

Realized-vol percentile (low = cheap vol = better time to BUY puts). ★ = core trade name. Comparison only — if a core put is over budget at entry, this shows the cheapest name to insure instead.

Ticker	RV pctile	RV (ann.)	DD from ATH	Entry
★ NVDA	24%	32%	-12%	CHEAP-buy
★ AMD	82%	71%	-10%	EXPENSIVE-wait
AVGO	50%	44%	-21%	FAIR
CORZ	63%	79%	-22%	FAIR
ARM	70%	76%	-41%	FAIR
APLD	11%	79%	-45%	CHEAP-buy
INTC	77%	80%	-34%	EXPENSIVE-wait
★ ANET	75%	57%	-7%	EXPENSIVE-wait
DLR	100%	46%	-2%	EXPENSIVE-wait
IRM	57%	31%	-4%	FAIR
VST	16%	38%	-25%	CHEAP-buy
CEG	27%	39%	-32%	CHEAP-buy
AMZN	57%	28%	-16%	FAIR
EQIX	79%	28%	-3%	EXPENSIVE-wait
LRCX	94%	81%	-30%	EXPENSIVE-wait
GEV	80%	60%	-14%	EXPENSIVE-wait
★ VRT	70%	63%	-23%	FAIR
MU	87%	83%	-24%	EXPENSIVE-wait
CRWV	50%	87%	-61%	FAIR
COHR	73%	81%	-34%	EXPENSIVE-wait
ASML	82%	52%	-12%	EXPENSIVE-wait
MRVL	83%	87%	-39%	EXPENSIVE-wait
TSM	87%	49%	-15%	EXPENSIVE-wait
AMAT	97%	81%	-26%	EXPENSIVE-wait
DELL	83%	77%	-6%	EXPENSIVE-wait
KLAC	95%	90%	-91%	EXPENSIVE-wait
GOOGL	96%	40%	-21%	EXPENSIVE-wait
ORCL	68%	50%	-65%	FAIR
PWR	59%	36%	-20%	FAIR
IREN	60%	106%	-52%	FAIR
CIEN	73%	68%	-38%	EXPENSIVE-wait
NBIS	90%	135%	-34%	EXPENSIVE-wait
META	92%	52%	-25%	EXPENSIVE-wait
FN	66%	70%	-36%	FAIR
MSFT	82%	31%	-30%	EXPENSIVE-wait
SMCI	54%	89%	-75%	FAIR
NRG	39%	38%	-23%	CHEAP-buy
HPE	92%	64%	-15%	EXPENSIVE-wait
IBM	99%	107%	-35%	EXPENSIVE-wait
CLS	72%	75%	-35%	EXPENSIVE-wait
CRM	81%	43%	-56%	EXPENSIVE-wait

Updated: 2026-07-24

Target Option Premiums

Ticker	Strike	Expiry	Bid / Ask	Mid	IV	1 contract	Note
AMD	$370 (-19%)	2026-10-16	$23.45 / $24.60	$24.02	74%	$2402	WATCH audit target
AMZN	$175 (-24%)	2028-01-21	$11.70 / $12.30	$12.00	34%	$1200	AMZN ~30% OTM Jan28
ANET	$100 (-41%)	2028-01-21	$11.35 / $14.35	$12.85	60%	$1285	ANET ~30% OTM Jan28
APLD	$20 (-25%)	2026-10-16	$1.65 / $2.31	$1.98	106%	$198	WATCH audit target
ARM	$240 (-2%)	2028-01-21	$83.70 / $87.00	$85.35	77%	$8535	ARM ~30% OTM Jan28
AVGO	$290 (-24%)	2026-10-16	$6.30 / $6.90	$6.60	55%	$660	WATCH audit target
CORZ	$16 (-23%)	2026-12-18	$1.78 / $2.52	$2.15	91%	$215	WATCH audit target
EQIX	$760 (-27%)	2027-06-17	$25.00 / $33.00	$29.00	38%	$2900	EQIX ~30% OTM Jan28 — best IV
GOOGL	$260 (-22%)	2028-01-21	$17.60 / $19.75	$18.68	34%	$1868	GOOGL ~30% OTM Jan28
INTC	$70 (-19%)	2026-10-16	$4.90 / $5.40	$5.15	79%	$515	WATCH audit target
META	$430 (-28%)	2028-01-21	$32.50 / $39.65	$36.08	41%	$3608	META ~30% OTM Jan28
MRVL	$185 (+6%)	2028-01-21	$67.90 / $70.40	$69.15	76%	$6915	MRVL ~30% OTM Jan28
MSFT	$320 (-19%)	2028-01-21	$25.85 / $27.05	$26.45	33%	$2645	MSFT ~30% OTM Jan28
NVDA	$130 (-34%)	2028-01-21	$9.05 / $9.40	$9.23	42%	$923	T1b — lottery ticket
NVDA	$140 (-29%)	2028-01-21	$11.50 / $12.20	$11.85	41%	$1185	T1 core — Cisco parallel
SMCI	$25 (-12%)	2028-01-21	$8.35 / $8.90	$8.62	82%	$862	SMCI speculative
SPCX	$85 (-27%)	2026-10-16	$5.60 / $5.90	$5.75	92%	$575	WATCH audit target
SPCX	$140 (+20%)	2028-01-21	$50.10 / $52.50	$51.30	63%	$5130	T2 — lock-up, 30% OTM

Updated weekly Friday 20:40 UTC · Jan 2028 LEAPS may not list until ~Aug 2026

Universe Audit — Tradability Score

All 46 tickers scored weekly: valuation stretch (30pt) + put liquidity (25pt) + vol cheapness (25pt) + drawdown remaining (20pt). PRIME = core trade candidate · WATCH = monitor · CONTEXT = breadth only · SKIP = already collapsed/illiquid. Updated: 2026-07-28

Ticker	Score	ddATH	P/E	P/S	ShortInt	OI	IVpct	Notes
— WATCH —
NVDA	68/100	-16.6%	15x	18.8x	1.4%	7,434	24%	P/E 15x · P/S 18.8x · SI 1.4% · OI 7,434
SPCX	62/100	-43.8%	126x	77.5x	2.7%	1,000	—	P/E 126x · P/S 77.5x · SI 2.7% · OI 1,000
AMD	60/100	-14.8%	36x	21.5x	2.5%	1,018	82%	P/E 36x · P/S 21.5x · SI 2.5% · OI 1,018
AVGO	58/100	-20.4%	20x	24.2x	1.5%	1,220	50%	P/E 20x · P/S 24.2x · SI 1.5% · OI 1,220
CORZ	56/100	-28.9%	70x	18.6x	22.6%	4,223	63%	P/E 70x · P/S 18.6x · SI 22.6% · OI 4,223
ARM	55/100	-39.4%	87x	57.8x	12.0%	3,639	70%	P/E 87x · P/S 57.8x · SI 12.0% · OI 3,639
APLD	54/100	-46.9%	-23x	23.6x	26.5%	1,388	11%	P/E -23x · P/S 23.6x · SI 26.5% · OI 1,388
INTC	54/100	-35.0%	46x	8.1x	2.4%	5,577	77%	P/E 46x · P/S 8.1x · SI 2.4% · OI 5,577
ANET	52/100	-8.7%	38x	22.1x	1.9%	422	75%	P/E 38x · P/S 22.1x · SI 1.9% · OI 422
— CONTEXT —
DLR	49/100	-4.0%	67x	10.9x	0.0%	22	100%	P/E 67x · P/S 10.9x · SI 0.0% · OI 22
IRM	47/100	-4.7%	47x	5.2x	3.8%	9	57%	P/E 47x · P/S 5.2x · SI 3.8% · OI 9
VST	46/100	-27.9%	15x	2.7x	4.3%	1,383	16%	P/E 15x · P/S 2.7x · SI 4.3% · OI 1,383
CEG	45/100	-33.2%	20x	3.2x	3.3%	3,774	27%	P/E 20x · P/S 3.2x · SI 3.3% · OI 3,774
AMZN	43/100	-15.9%	23x	3.4x	1.1%	3,320	57%	P/E 23x · P/S 3.4x · SI 1.1% · OI 3,320
EQIX	43/100	-6.2%	54x	10.8x	2.2%	1	79%	P/E 54x · P/S 10.8x · SI 2.2% · OI 1
LRCX	41/100	-32.7%	36x	16.8x	2.6%	675	94%	P/E 36x · P/S 16.8x · SI 2.6% · OI 675
GEV	40/100	-15.1%	40x	6.4x	3.8%	173	80%	P/E 40x · P/S 6.4x · SI 3.8% · OI 173
MU	39/100	-25.8%	6x	11.3x	3.2%	1,230	87%	P/E 6x · P/S 11.3x · SI 3.2% · OI 1,230
VRT	39/100	-23.7%	33x	10.2x	2.9%	461	70%	P/E 33x · P/S 10.2x · SI 2.9% · OI 461
ASML	38/100	-16.8%	29x	18.0x	0.3%	16	82%	P/E 29x · P/S 18.0x · SI 0.3% · OI 16
COHR	38/100	-36.4%	33x	8.0x	5.2%	832	73%	P/E 33x · P/S 8.0x · SI 5.2% · OI 832
CRWV	38/100	-61.4%	-45x	6.2x	21.4%	2,070	50%	P/E -45x · P/S 6.2x · SI 21.4% · OI 2,070
MRVL	38/100	-40.2%	30x	19.5x	4.3%	1,323	83%	P/E 30x · P/S 19.5x · SI 4.3% · OI 1,323
AMAT	37/100	-28.5%	31x	14.1x	2.1%	281	97%	P/E 31x · P/S 14.1x · SI 2.1% · OI 281
TSM	37/100	-16.3%	19x	0.5x	0.7%	5,141	87%	P/E 19x · P/S 0.5x · SI 0.7% · OI 5,141
DELL	35/100	-8.5%	20x	2.1x	4.3%	288	83%	P/E 20x · P/S 2.1x · SI 4.3% · OI 288
KLAC	34/100	-91.6%	40x	20.3x	2.4%	116	95%	P/E 40x · P/S 20.3x · SI 2.4% · OI 116
GOOGL	32/100	-18.9%	22x	9.0x	1.3%	682	96%	P/E 22x · P/S 9.0x · SI 1.3% · OI 682
ORCL	31/100	-63.5%	11x	5.1x	2.9%	6,666	68%	P/E 11x · P/S 5.1x · SI 2.9% · OI 6,666
CIEN	30/100	-39.9%	39x	9.6x	4.4%	168	73%	P/E 39x · P/S 9.6x · SI 4.4% · OI 168
IREN	30/100	-52.5%	-39x	17.1x	27.1%	245	60%	P/E -39x · P/S 17.1x · SI 27.1% · OI 245
NBIS	30/100	-34.5%	-116x	54.3x	28.0%	116	90%	P/E -116x · P/S 54.3x · SI 28.0% · OI 116
PWR	30/100	-21.0%	38x	3.1x	2.4%	4	59%	P/E 38x · P/S 3.1x · SI 2.4% · OI 4
— SKIP —
META	29/100	-24.8%	16x	7.0x	1.7%	2	92%	P/E 16x · P/S 7.0x · SI 1.7% · OI 2
FN	25/100	-37.0%	27x	4.0x	7.4%	14	66%	P/E 27x · P/S 4.0x · SI 7.4% · OI 14
MSFT	25/100	-28.2%	20x	9.1x	1.2%	676	82%	P/E 20x · P/S 9.1x · SI 1.2% · OI 676
SMCI	23/100	-74.9%	9x	0.6x	19.6%	942	54%	P/E 9x · P/S 0.6x · SI 19.6% · OI 942
HPE	20/100	-14.2%	12x	1.6x	5.6%	39	92%	P/E 12x · P/S 1.6x · SI 5.6% · OI 39
IBM	20/100	-34.4%	16x	2.9x	3.9%	451	99%	P/E 16x · P/S 2.9x · SI 3.9% · OI 451
NRG	20/100	-25.8%	12x	0.9x	4.8%	60	39%	P/E 12x · P/S 0.9x · SI 4.8% · OI 60
CLS	18/100	-32.6%	21x	2.7x	2.6%	35	72%	P/E 21x · P/S 2.7x · SI 2.6% · OI 35
CRM	16/100	-52.8%	11x	3.3x	6.6%	623	81%	P/E 11x · P/S 3.3x · SI 6.6% · OI 623

Paper Positions

ID	Ticker	Contract	Qty	Premium	Entry	Status	P&L	Notes
No positions yet — research phase active

+ Log a paper position

Cascade Wave Tracker

entry = W1 ≤−40% AND W2 ≤−15%

Entry not yet open. Wave 1 needs 3.9% more. From ATH · both thresholds must be met · then enter Wave 3 and ride.

Wave 1 — Infrastructure suppliers

avg -36.1% ⏳ 36.1% / 40%

NRG -33.0%

VST -32.5%

CEG -36.8%

AES -42.0%

Wave 2 — Memory & hardware

avg -17.8% ✅ CONFIRMED

EQIX -7.2%

DLR -6.4%

IRM -6.6%

VRT -29.5%

GEV -21.3%

PWR -25.4%

DELL -16.9%

HPE -29.4%

Current Phase

⚡ PHASE 1 — DECELERATION CONFIRMED

Jun 6, 2026

Broadcom Q2 miss = Wave 1 confirmed. Broadcom is NOT the trade — it's the signal. Wait for the bounce + IV to settle on Wave 3 names (NVDA, ARM). That's the entry.

Cascade model — wave status

⚡ W1

Infra suppliers

CONFIRMED

◑ W1b

Bounce / IV calm

WAIT FOR IT

○ W3

NVDA / ARM / MRVL

ENTER HERE

○ W4

SPCX / OpenAI

PARALLEL

3 layers — all must be true

✓

Layer 1 — Structural overbuild confirmed

NVDA deceleration (+93%→+77%) · Enterprise cost caps (Uber, MSFT) · Broadcom miss · Goldman/Bloomberg mainstream

◑

Layer 2 — Catalyst arriving

SPCX IPO Jun 12 · S&P 500 blocked (smaller passive bid) · Lock-up Aug→Dec 2026 · Google fake deal = window dressing

○

Layer 3 — Entry gate (CFD timing)

W1b bounce peaks → IV starts falling → 2 lower daily highs → enter CFD short · NVDA TA or TSM TA

CFD entry checklist — gate 0

○ W1 power basket avg ≤ −40% ATH (now −36.1%, gap 3.9%)

◑ W2 DC infra basket avg ≤ −15% ATH (now −14.3%, gap 0.7% — basically there)

○ NVDA IV spikes ≥55% then starts falling (W1b bounce signal)

○ NVDA shows 2 consecutive lower daily highs after bounce peak → enter CFD short, 10% stop, 10-day limit

○ TSM — enter after NVDA confirms, same rules, 10% stop · ASML/ANET/KLAC: single shot only if high conviction

Watch next

Now · W2 DC infra 0.7% from threshold — any red session triggers it
Jun 12 · SPCX IPO — watch IV spike, do not enter same day
Aug 2026 · NVDA Q2 earnings — second miss = W3 acceleration
Aug 2026 · SPCX lock-up first wave begins
Ongoing · NVDA IV rising toward 55%+ = prepare CFD entry
Ongoing · Government equity stake — if announced, pause all entries

Full thesis state doc → experiments/113b_burry_plan/THESIS_STATE.md

○ Watch lock-up expiry filings (December 2026)

Research Findings

Last updated: 2026-06-07 · Full docs in experiments/113b_burry_plan/research/

NVDA Tier A CFD 10% stop · 2 attempts · 1:1 leverage

DC revenue $75.2B Q1 FY2027 (+77% YoY, decelerating from 93%). Hyperscaler concentration extreme — Big 4 majority of revenue. Meta signed 6GW custom AMD deal (MI450) — confirmed merchant GPU displacement. P/S 19.6× (Cisco peaked at 38×). Blackwell supply normalised, GPU spot prices falling. Broadcom Q2 miss Jun 6 = first AI infrastructure earnings miss — cascade confirmed. ⚠ Enter on W1b bounce rollover — 2 lower highs + IV falling from ≥55%.

SPCX Observe only Lock-up Aug→Dec 2026 · IV too high for CFD · options if IV normalises

IPO June 12 2026 at $1.75T. Lock-up is staggered — NOT standard 180 days. Selling begins Aug 2026 (20% unlock after Q2 earnings), with 7% tranches at 70/90/105/120/135 days. Full unlock Dec 9 2026. Musk locked up 1 year (until ~Jun 2027). P/S ~90–115× revenue — 2–3× Cisco's dot-com peak. S&P 500 blocked entry (Jun 2026) — only NASDAQ/Russell ETF flows at listing. Much smaller passive bid than originally projected. ⚠ Monitor lock-up mechanics Aug→Dec 2026. Observe only — no CFD (SPCX vol too high for small budget).

Secondary Candidates

EQIX — Best near-term

IV 15% (cheap). P/E 56×. Only 3% off ATH. Thesis strong.
⚠ Check OI manually — audit shows illiquid.

ARM — High conviction, bad timing

P/E 112×, P/S 74×. IV 95% (expensive). Re-check Aug 2026 after earnings vol.

MRVL — Wait

P/E 43×, P/S 26×. IV 100% (worst). Strong thesis, worst entry. Wait for vol crush.

AMD — Conflicted

Benefits from NVDA weakness. Not a clean short. Removed from active short list.

Earnings Call Language

scored by AI · low = cautious (thesis ✓) · high = confident (thesis ✗)

NVDA · MSFT · GOOGL · META · AMZN — demand / capex / ROI language each quarter

NVDANVIDIAQ2 FY2027 conviction 10/10transcript →

Demand

10/10

Capex

10/10

AI ROI

10/10

Management language is extremely bullish across all dimensions, with no signs of caution or moderation. The bear case sees no cracks in the narrative, making this a high-risk quarter for the short thesis.

"unprecedented demand"

"can't build fast enough"

MSFTMicrosoftQ2 2026 conviction 8/10transcript →

Demand

8/10

Capex

9/10

AI ROI

7/10

Management language indicates strong demand acceleration and increased capex commitment, with customers seeing clear ROI. The bear case would note that such aggressive buildout could lead to oversupply if demand normalizes, and that current ROI claims may not persist as competition intensifies.

"unprecedented demand"

"can't build fast enough"

GOOGLAlphabetQ2 2026 conviction 8/10transcript →

Demand

8/10

Capex

9/10

AI ROI

6/10

Alphabet continues to signal strong demand and aggressive capex investment in AI infrastructure, with management expressing confidence in the opportunity. The bear case would note that ROI language remains somewhat measured and that the massive spending commitments carry execution risk if demand growth moderates.

"We are seeing strong demand for our AI infrastructure"

"We are investing aggressively to capture this opportunity"

METAMetaQ2 2026 conviction 8/10transcript →

Demand

8/10

Capex

9/10

AI ROI

6/10

Management expressed strong confidence in AI demand and accelerated capex plans, with clear ROI claims from customers. The bear case sees risk in the aggressive spending trajectory if ROI fails to materialize at scale.

"unprecedented demand"

"can't build fast enough"

AMZNAmazonQ2 2026 conviction 9/10transcript →

Demand

9/10

Capex

9/10

AI ROI

7/10

Management language is extremely bullish on AI demand and capex acceleration, with strong ROI claims. The bear case sees risk of overinvestment if demand normalizes or ROI disappoints.

"unprecedented demand"

"can't build fast enough"

Short Interest Trend

updated every 2 days · rising SI = bears building

1 rising ↑

NVDAWATCH

Short int.

1.4%→

+0.06pp

IV pctile

24%

SPCXWATCH

Short int.

2.7%↑

+0.87pp

IV pctile

AMDWATCH

Short int.

2.5%↓

-0.11pp

IV pctile

82%

AVGOWATCH

Short int.

1.5%→

IV pctile

50%

CORZWATCH

Short int.

22.6%↓

-2.04pp

IV pctile

63%

ARMWATCH

Short int.

12.0%↑

+0.16pp

IV pctile

70%

INTCWATCH

Short int.

2.4%↓

-0.14pp

IV pctile

77%

APLDWATCH

Short int.

26.5%↓

-0.43pp

IV pctile

11%

ANETWATCH

Short int.

1.9%↓

-0.17pp

IV pctile

75%

Insider Behavior

Form 4 · last 60 days · SEC EDGAR

S = discretionary open-market sale (signal) · F = tax withholding on RSU vest (routine, automatic) · Only S transactions indicate intentional selling.

NVDA

S: $122.4M · 2 trades

F: $40.3M RSU vest

MSFT

S: $10.0M · 3 trades

F: $0.4M RSU vest

ARM

S: $7.5M · 3 trades

Audio Briefings